Greater Cleveland and Canton Gaining, Not Losing, Jobs
According to Newly Released Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) yesterday released its most
reliable source of jobs data, the Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages (QCEW), for the quarter ending September 2013. It shows
that the 18-county Northeast Ohio region gained an average of more
than 9,900 jobs in Q3 2013, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of
year-over-year job growth. The Greater Cleveland area gained an
average of almost 7,000 jobs from Q3 2012 to Q3 2013. During the
same period, Canton gained an average of more than 2,300 jobs
followed by Akron with 862. Youngstown lost, on average, fewer than
600 jobs.
This is in stark contrast to the monthly jobs report also issued by
the BLS, but based on Current Employment Statistics (CES), which
has indicated, since May, that Greater Cleveland is losing more
jobs than any other metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in the
nation. Conversely, it reported that Akron had gained more than
6,000 jobs in July and August. The QCEW data show a more modest
gain of 930 jobs. Due to the federal government shutdown in
August, the CES did not release data for September, but a
comparison of the data from these two sources (CES and QCEW) for
July and August for the four MSAs show marked discrepancies. Even
the direction of the change was incorrect for three out of the four
MSAs:
| MSA | INITIAL CES | QCEW |
| Akron | 6,100 | 930 |
| Canton | -2,100 | 2,589 |
| Cleveland | -6,300 | 7,669 |
| Youngstown | 700 | -578 |
Source: Team NEO based on Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages data
“The CES data is based on a survey of only 6% of all US
establishments – a small sample with high error rates,”
explains Jacob Duritsky, managing director, research, Team
NEO. “While directionally reliable at the national
level, at the metropolitan level the data are unreliable and often
misleading. Media, business and community leaders should focus on
the QCEW results, which are based on actual unemployment insurance
filings provided by 98% of employers in the US. It is the
most accurate source of jobs data though not the most immediate.
QCEW data lag by 7 to 10 months, so it is often
unreported.”
Earlier this month, representatives from Team NEO and the Greater
Cleveland Partnership traveled to Washington, DC and met with the
legislative staffs of Northeast Ohio’s congressional
representatives to highlight the issues with the CES data and
enlist their support in encouraging the federal government to
develop a process that will produce data that is both reliable and
timely.