Northeast Ohio Economic Projections Post COVID-19

Team NEO report provides insights on impact and opportunity

Team NEO’s June 2020 Quarterly Economic Review takes a look at the potential performance of the Northeast Ohio economy through 2025. Calculating projections based on the June annualized national and local projections of employment and gross domestic product (GDP) from Moody’s Analytics, Team NEO shares the following insights:

  • GDP for Northeast Ohio and the U.S. is projected to recover by 2022 after losses in 2020 and 2021; by 2022, U.S. GDP is projected to be 5% higher, and Northeast Ohio 3% higher, than 2018 GDP. These projections increase to 14% and 9%, respectively, by 2025.
  • Employment for both the U.S. and Northeast Ohio is projected to recover more slowly than GDP, with the U.S. projected to recover by 2023 and Northeast Ohio by 2025.
  • Driver industries will be impacted by the pandemic with regard to both GDP and employment: For 2020, projected year-over-year losses include a 9.1% drop in GDP and a 5.7% loss in employment for manufacturing; a 6.1% drop in GDP and 4.2% loss in employment for headquarters; and a 2.4% dip in GDP and 4.4% loss in employment for the health care sector.
  • Northeast Ohio’s manufacturing sector, which accounts for 20% of the region’s GDP, will be impacted in 2020. For example, transportation equipment GDP is projected to drop 19.5% year-over-year and fabricated metal product 16.9%. Employment projections reflect losses as well, with year-over-year drops including 10.3% for nonmetallic mineral products and 9.6% for fabricated metal product.

While the coronavirus pandemic will negatively impact economies around the world in the near future, the challenges we face today can lead to opportunities tomorrow.

Team NEO's June 2020 QER Cover

“We have an opportunity to reevaluate the way we conduct business and put measures into place to help ensure resilience in the future – like upskilling and reskilling workers,” said Team NEO CEO Bill Koehler. “From our conversations with manufacturers throughout the region, we know they’re embracing industry 4.0 innovations and revisiting onshoring feasibility.  There is plenty of potential ahead for well-positioned, forward-thinking businesses.”

Team NEO publishes the Quarterly Economic Review to provide a holistic picture of Northeast Ohio’s economy. The nonprofit organization uses this information to attract new businesses and jobs to Northeast Ohio and help those that are here grow.

Team NEO used Moody’s Analytics to generate this report. Moody’s has made their assumptions based on there not being a second wave of closings due to COVID-19, the impact of the global supply chain disruption and the potential for additional federal stimulus.  Further, Moody’s projections in this report are subject to ongoing and perhaps significant adjustments.

About Team NEO

Team NEO is a private, nonprofit economic development organization accelerating business growth and job creation throughout the 18 counties of Northeast Ohio. As the designated JobsOhio Network Partner, we align and amplify local economic development efforts in Northeast Ohio’s 18-county region; we conduct research and data analysis to inform local conversations and influence solutions; we market Northeast Ohio as a region; and we work to increase access to jobs, education and training for the region’s 4.3 million people.